Haryana : Lok Sabha Constituency wise elections Analysis (Part 1 - Gurgaon)

Lok Sabha(LS) elections are not far off but the political situation and equations both are uncertain in Haryana due to many factors. Considering the current scenario let’s do the LS constituency wise analysis, prediction and contenders on 10 seats in Haryana.

In this part we will start with GURGAON LOK SABHA CONSTITUENCY

Gurgaon :

Gurgaon LS seat consists of 9 assembly segments namely -  Bawal, Rewari, Pataudi, Badshahpur, Gurgaon, Sohna, Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka, Punahana . Political situation here has changed a lot during last 1 year or so. Rao Inderjeet Singh , Current MP from Gurgaon has switched sides from Congress towards BJP. Rao Inderjeet holds considerable clout among Ahir belt. Last time Runner up Zakir Hussain too has switched sides from BSP to INLD. Congress at present is in lookout for a fresh candidate. AAP may go with Satish Yadav or even Yogendra Yadav

Ahirs used to form a major chunk of voters in this belt but post delimitation in 2008 Muslims in Meo region has become a considerable force to reckon with. Punjabis voters  in Rewari and Gurgaon assembly segments  cannot be ignored.

BJP will most probably field Rao Inderjeet as their candidate and INLD may go with Zakir Hussain. Ticket for Congress is a toss in between Aftab Ahmed and Chiranjiv Rao , Son of sitting MLA from Rewari Capt. Ajay Yadav. If congress fields Aftab Ahmed it may split voters in Meo region giving slight  advantage to Rao Inderjit and making contest between Congress and BJP. Similarly If Congress goes with Chiranjiv , Yadav votes may witness a split between Congress and BJP making it a 3 cornered contest. Since the new entrant AAP will most probably  be fielding a Yadav candidate in Satish Yadav or Yogendra Yadav , a big split in Yadav and Urban voters can be witnessed , making matters difficult for BJP.  There is also a strong possibility that voters in  Meo region  may collectively vote to defeat BJP.

In all cases discussed above one trend is clear that there will be a split in Ahir voters if congress fields a Yadav candidate , in that case Meo region becomes crucial. INLD vote base is not strong in Gurgaon LS seat but Zakir Hussain may pull some Votes from Meo region.

Prediction :

Case 1 : Congress fields Yadav Candidate à It will make 3 Yadav candidates and 1 Muslim candidate. It would certainly means game over for BJP as AAP may eat up into its urban votes and Congress/AAP will eat up some of its Yadav votes. Direct Contest between Congress & INLD with Congress at advantage

Case 2 : Congress fields Muslim Candidate à It will make 2 Yadav and 2 Muslim candidates. In this case Yadav votes may over to Rao Inderjeet. Meo votes mayu get divided. Also Meo voters may collectively vote to defeat BJP. Direct contest Congress & BJP with BJP at advantage.