Opinion Polls : Good for Entertainment??

Starting with some facts :

Just having a look at opinion poll of last 2 general elections predicting too optimistic performance by NDA and below par performance Congress/UPA. In 2004 , opinion polls predicted 95 more seats than the actual for NDA. Same way in 2009 it predicted 30 seats more than the actual in 2009 for NDA. 

Coming to Case of UPA predictions by Opinion polls. They stand no where to the actuals. So it can easily be concluded these opinion polls are no where to the reality.

Why so much difference between Opinion polls and actual result :-

1. Number of voters surveyed across a state is only 10-15 thousands. A number one tenth of total voters in an assembly constituency.
2. People interviewed might get influenced by the current trends in social media etc.
3. People interviewed are not from rural background. It is quiet evident in India elections are mostly decided by rural voters not by Urban voter
4. Alliances which happen just few months before elections are not taken into Consideration. For e.g Opinion polls predicting one 1 seat for Congress in Bihar. As Congress is without alliance in Bihar , so this number might be a realistic one but if Congress alliances with JD(U) or RJD this number will automatically increase.
5. Policies not taken into consideration like Telangana effect. Before Telangana Congress was predicted to win only 7 seats in AP but if Telangana becomes reality. Congress will actually sweep the state along with TRS or If TRS merges with congress.
6. Whatever the mood in the country ultimately more than 50% voter decides their vote among the candidates contesting the polls in their constituency,  irrespective of party.

What recent Opinion poll mean for Congress and BJP:

Recently Published Opinion Poll hasn't given clear mandate to NDA or UPA. It has given 162 seats to BJP and 112 to congress. While BJP has played all its cards available with it still they are nowhere near to forming the government at centre as they will find it hard to have alliance partners because its ideological differences. In case of Congress its policies makes a difference. policies which completely pro-rural , pro-farmers and pro-poors. and these people are never a part of opinion polls.

Assembly election in 4 states (Delhi , Rajasthan , CG and Madhya Pradesh)

Opinions poll also predicted loss of congress in all 4 states in coming assembly elections. Yes , its true these 4 states are crucial for both the parties as they are in direct contest with each other. Gujarat is the only other state where BJP is in direct contest with Congress. Rest in southern and north easter states of India BJP hardly has any presence. If congress wins 1 of the 4 states opinion poll will be deemed as unfit for predictions. Again if Congress manages to win 1 of the four states it will be an even contest during General elections. And if its 2-2 then virtually it will mean disaster for BJP. 

So how good are these opinion polls we will come to know on 8th December '13. "Till then we can have an entertainment of watching Opinion polls"